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Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd [Containment Doctrine<\/em>][1]<\/a>l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao Hoa K\u1ef3 d\u00f9ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n\u201d s\u1ef1 b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c m\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c \u201cki\u1ec3m d\u1ecbch\u201d [quarantine<\/em>][2]<\/a>\u00a0ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n vi\u1ec7c l\u00e2y nhi\u1ec5m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u0103n b\u1ec7nh hi\u1ec3m ngh\u00e8o.\u00a0 Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y nh\u1eb1m m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t gia t\u0103ng an ninh cho Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c tr\u00e1nh \u201chi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Domino\u201d [\u201cdomino effect\u201d][3]<\/a>\u00a0g\u00e2y c\u1ea3nh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia tu\u1ea7n t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed5 theo khi m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e2n c\u1eadn b\u1ecb c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfm \u0111o\u1ea1t.\u00a0 Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd do nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao Hoa K\u1ef3 George F. Kennan[4]<\/a> kh\u01a1i thu\u1eadt t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1947 [5]<\/a>\u00a0v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u1eddi T\u1ed5ng Th\u1ed1ng Harry S Truman.[6]<\/a><\/p>\n Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd c\u0103n c\u1ee9 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh sau:[7]<\/a><\/p>\n Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp th\u00e0nh Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Truman [Truman Doctrine<\/em>][8]<\/a>\u00a0\u0111\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh nguy c\u01a1 c\u1ee7a nguy\u00ean kh\u1ed1i c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chuy\u00ean ch\u1ebf s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1ef1 do trong cu\u1ed9c \u201cChi\u1ebfn Tranh L\u1ea1nh\u201d [Cold War<\/em>].[9]<\/a>\u00a0Theo chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n ti\u1ec1m l\u1ef1c \u0111e do\u1ea1 X\u00f4vi\u1ebft c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, Truman x\u1ebfp \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p:<\/p>\n V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd ch\u1ec9 ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng t\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c \u201cng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n, \u0111\u1ec1 ph\u00f2ng\u201d trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u201cChi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh\u201d, ho\u1eb7c n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 xung \u0111\u1ed9t, th\u00ec \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cChi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf\u201d [\u201climited war\u201d policy<\/em>].\u00a0 \u0110i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh, tuy \u0111\u00e3 cho ph\u00e9p Douglas MacArthur v\u01b0\u1ee3t v\u0129 tuy\u1ebfn 38 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1nh B\u1eafc H\u00e0n, Truman v\u1eabn khi\u1ec3n tr\u00e1ch danh t\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u201cquy\u1ebft th\u1eafng\u201d h\u01a1n l\u00e0 thi h\u00e0nh thu\u1ea7n Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd, m\u00e0 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, MacArthur ch\u00ea l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p nh\u00ec nh\u1eb1ng \u201cKh\u00f4ng-C\u1ed1t-Th\u1eafng\u201d [\u201cNo-win policy\u201d].<\/em>[13]<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd v\u00e0 Thuy\u1ebft Domino l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng qua ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Hoa ky t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, trong nhi\u1ec1u giai \u0111o\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n TT Truman n\u0103m 1952 c\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7n 60 tri\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 Kim cho Ph\u00e1p [\u0111\u1ed3ng minh NATO] trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng du k\u00edch chi\u1ebfn c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn \u0110\u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n TT Dwight D. Eisenhower [nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 1953-61] \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o \u201chi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 nguy c\u01a1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 cho r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu Hoa k\u1ef3 kh\u00f4ng can thi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ec3 phe c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfm c\u1ee9 Vi\u1ec7t Nam th\u00ec L\u00e0o, Campuchia, Th\u00e1i Lan, Mi\u1ebfn \u0110i\u1ec7n s\u1ebd s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 nh\u01b0 qu\u00e2n b\u00e0i domino v\u00e0 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o kh\u1ed1i c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n.[14]<\/a>\u00a0Do \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Eisenhower t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1[15]<\/a>\u00a0\u0111\u1ed3ng minh [NATO] Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a Chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0110\u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi 3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n:<\/p>\n Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Anh Winston Churchill t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i tham d\u1ef1, sau \u0111\u00f3, Qu\u1ed1c H\u1ed9i Hoa K\u1ef3 ch\u1ec9 mu\u1ed1n \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cChi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf\u201d t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh nguy c\u01a1 Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 3, n\u00ean c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap Qu\u00e2n \u0110\u1ed9i Vi\u1ec5n Chinh Ph\u00e1p t\u1ea1i \u0110i\u1ec7n Bi\u00ean Ph\u1ee7.\u00a0 H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0110\u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, v\u00e0 v\u1edbi H\u1ed9i Ngh\u1ecb Gen\u00e8ve [th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 1954] Vi\u1ec7t Nam chia \u0111\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec3 sau \u0111\u00f3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7, gi\u1eefa Phe T\u1ef1 do \u1edf Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Phe C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u1edf Mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc.<\/p>\n TT JF Kennedy [nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 1960-63] b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 McGeorge Bundy v\u00e0o ch\u1ee9c v\u1ee5 C\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia.\u00a0 Sau khi Hoa K\u1ef3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed5 b\u1ed9 t\u1ea1i V\u1ecbnh Heo Cuba [Bay of Pigs Invasion<\/em>][16]<\/a>\u00a0v\u00e0 b\u1ecb khi\u00eau kh\u00edch b\u1edfi T\u01b0\u1eddng Ng\u0103n Berlin, TT Kennedy & Bundy coi Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 th\u00ed-\u0111i\u1ec3m-\u0111\u1ec3-th\u1ef1c-hi\u1ec7n<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Be-b\u1edd t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 ph\u1ea3i gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1eb7n \u0111\u1ee9ng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n t\u1ea1i Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng s\u00e2u c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0o Chi\u1ebfn tranh Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 sau n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 tham chi\u1ebfn tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Hoa K\u1ef3 t\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi TT Lyndon Johnson.<\/p>\n Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Kennedy \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 d\u1ea5u \u1ea5n tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam:<\/p>\n T\u1eeb n\u0103m 1961, TT Kennedy ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cchi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf\u201d t\u1ea1i Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u00f4n \u0111\u1ed1c m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tham chi\u1ebfn t\u1eeb 800 t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 16,300 binh s\u0129 Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u1edbi \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00fat qu\u00e2n kh\u1ecfi m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00e0ng s\u1edbm c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t.<\/p>\n Trong khi TT Dwight D. Eisenhower nhi\u1ec7t li\u1ec7t \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec7 Nh\u1ea5t C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a TT Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Di\u1ec7m, th\u00ec ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Kennedy b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng \u201cth\u1ea5t s\u1ee7ng\u201d TT Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Di\u1ec7m v\u00ec ch\u00ednh th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a \u00d4ng l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ho\u00e1 Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0o tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t thi\u1ec3u s\u1ed1 g\u1ed3m c\u00f3 gia \u0111\u00ecnh h\u1ecd Ng\u00f4, c\u00e1c c\u1ef1u quan l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u00e2n, d\u00e2n, c\u00e1n ch\u00ednh thu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ea7n Lao, g\u1ed1c Ky T\u00f4 gi\u00e1o.\u00a0 H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n 90% d\u00e2n ch\u00fang t\u1ea1i Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam, g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea3ng ph\u00e1i nh\u01b0 \u0110\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t, Vi\u1ec7t Nam Qu\u1ed1c D\u00e2n \u0110\u1ea3ng, D\u00e2n X\u00e3 \u0110\u1ea3ng v.v., c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 tr\u00ed th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, t\u00edn \u0111\u1ed3 Ph\u1eadt gi\u00e1o, Cao \u0110\u00e0i, Ho\u00e0 H\u1ea3o v.v. \u00a0\u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i tham d\u1ef1 v\u00e0o Cao tr\u00e0o D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 m\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi to\u00e0n d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Chi\u1ebfn Tuy\u1ebfn n\u00e0y.\u00a0 H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201cbi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e3i\/c\u00f4 l\u1eadp\u201d d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ho\u00e1 tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n trong kh\u1eafp Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfc.\u00a0 Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i hy h\u1eefu d\u1ef1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc to\u00e0n v\u1eb9n trong tay c\u1ee7a r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi Vi\u1ec7t, c\u0169ng y\u00eau n\u01b0\u1edbc, c\u0169ng t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do.<\/p>\n Sau hai cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh h\u1ee5t, v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n ch\u00fang, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c Tranh \u0111\u1ea5u Ph\u1eadt gi\u00e1o, TT Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Di\u1ec7m v\u00e0 C\u1ed1 V\u1ea5n Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Nhu \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb b\u1eaft v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 th\u1ee7 b\u1edfi thu\u1ed9c h\u1ea1 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i T\u01b0\u1edbng D\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Minh v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh tr\u1ebb trong cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea3o Ch\u00ednh th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 1963.\u00a0 Nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed [m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cgi\u1ea3i m\u1eadt\u201d] \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn c\u1ee7a CIA Lucien Conein, \u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 Cabot Lodge, B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i gia Hoa K\u1ef3,[17]<\/a>\u00a0d\u00f9 l\u00fac x\u1ea9y ra cu\u1ed9c \u00e1m s\u00e1t tr\u00ean, TT Kennedy & C\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n Bundy \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4n kh\u00e9o \u201cv\u1eafng m\u1eb7t\u201d n\u01a1i nhi\u1ec7m s\u1edf.\u00a0 Ri\u00eang Maxwel Taylor, T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng T\u01b0\u1edbng L\u0129nh Hoa K\u1ef3 ghi nh\u1eadn tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 \u00a0\u00e1m h\u1ea1i TT Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Di\u1ec7m v\u00e0 \u00d4. Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Nhu.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n T\u1eeb g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf TT Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Di\u1ec7m v\u00e0 \u00d4. Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Nhu l\u00e0 do [a] t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng khi\u1ebfm khuy\u1ebft d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1i Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam, [b] \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tai h\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a v\u1ee3 ch\u1ed3ng Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Nhu v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o, v\u00e0 [c] ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o v\u00ec Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Nhu \u201ch\u00f9 do\u1ea1\u201d ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng trung l\u1eadp, thay th\u1ebf TT. Ng\u00f4 \u0110\u00ecnh Di\u1ec7m v.v. v\u1edbi \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ee9c \u00e9p c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3.[19]<\/a><\/p>\n TT Lyndon Johnson [nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 1963-69] ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nh\u01b0ng bi\u1ebfn ho\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i \u201cBe-b\u1edd\u201d c\u1ee7a c\u1ed1 TT JF Kennedy, b\u1ecb \u00e1m s\u00e1t v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n sau Anh Em h\u1ecd Ng\u00f4.\u00a0 N\u0103m 1964, khi \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean C\u1ed9ng ho\u00e0 Barry Goldwater th\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1 TT \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u1ec7m: \u201cT\u1ea1i sao kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 t\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng?\u201d[20]<\/a>\u00a0th\u00ec TT Johnson l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f4i: \u201cCh\u1ec9 v\u00e0o can thi\u1ec7p t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00f3 th\u00f4i\u201d.[21]<\/a>\u00a0Th\u1eadt v\u1eady, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i \u201cCan thi\u1ec7p gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n\u201d n\u00e0y v\u1eeba t\u0103ng, v\u1eeba h\u00e3m, qua nhi\u1ec1u h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c:<\/p>\n Th\u00f4ng qua Bi\u1ec3u quy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 V\u1ecbnh B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t [Gulf of Tonkin Resolution][22]<\/a>\u00a0\u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea5y c\u1edb \u00a0tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u1ee5 c\u00e1c ph\u00f3ng th\u1ee7y l\u00f4i h\u1ea1m B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u1edbi khu tr\u1ee5c h\u1ea1m USS Maddox & USS Turney;<\/p>\n Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh chuy\u1ec3n Kh\u00f4ng \u0110o\u00e0n 18 T\u00e1c Chi\u1ebfn t\u1eeb Okinawa \u0111\u00e1p xu\u1ed1ng c\u0103n c\u1ee9 \u0110\u00e0 N\u1eb5ng v\u00e0 cho ph\u00e9p ph\u1ea3n l\u1ef1c F-105 v\u01b0\u1ee3t v\u0129 tuy\u1ebfn 17 oanh t\u1ea1c v\u00e0 th\u1ea3 bom c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecba ph\u1eadn thu\u1ed9c l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t, c\u1ed1t g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c hao m\u00f2n \u0111\u1ecbch v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a t\u1edbi th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn ng\u01b0ng chi\u1ebfn;<\/p>\n L\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng s\u1ed1 gia t\u0103ng qu\u00e2n l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh quy [Qu\u00e2n \u0110\u1ed9i Nh\u00e2n D\u00e2n<\/em>] \u0111\u1ed9t nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t, ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi qu\u00e2n l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a Gi\u1ea3i Ph\u00f3ng Mi\u1ec1n Nam [GPMN], Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 gia t\u0103ng qu\u00e2n l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb 16,000 binh s\u0129 [n\u0103m 1963, cu\u1ed1i th\u1eddi Kennedy] t\u1edbi con s\u1ed1 cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 537,000 binh s\u0129 [n\u0103m 1968, th\u1eddi Lyndon Johnson], v\u1edbi s\u1ee9 m\u1ea1ng duy nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 canh ph\u00f2ng chung quanh c\u00e1c phi tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecba \u0111i\u1ec3m \u201cph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7\u201d trong l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n TT Lyndon Johnson kh\u00f4ng r\u00fat qu\u00e2n d\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00f2i ho\u00e0 b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a phe \u201cB\u1ed3 C\u00e2u\u201d, nh\u01b0ng\u00a0c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng li\u1ec1u l\u0129nh ti\u1ebfn qu\u00e2n \u0111\u00e1nh ra B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh v\u00e0 phe ch\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn \u201cDi\u1ec1u H\u00e2u\u201d \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi, ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec \u201cs\u1ee3 r\u1eb1ng<\/strong>\u201d \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi khi\u00eau kh\u00edch l\u00e0m c\u00e1c Qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t [Nga X\u00f4 & Trung c\u1ed9ng] \u00a0ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh \u0110\u1ec7 Tam Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn Nguy\u00ean t\u1eed.\u00a0 \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao TT Lyndon Johnson t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng cho T\u01b0\u1edbng William Westmoreland \u0111em qu\u00e2n sang L\u00e0o c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfp li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t.\u00a0 \u0110\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u01b0u \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft n\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a Nga x\u00f4, Trung C\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u201cth\u1eeba th\u1eafng\u201d xua h\u1ebft qu\u00e2n l\u1ef1c x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp Mi\u1ec1n Nam m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee3 ai d\u00e1m ph\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ea1i n\u1ed9i tuy\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n V\u1ec1 ph\u00eda Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u201cH\u1eadu \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ea5t C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0\u201d l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u201cqu\u00e2n qu\u1ea3n\u201d v\u1edbi 10 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh h\u1ee5t v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c \u201cch\u00ednh l\u00fd\u201d thay quy\u1ec1n, \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ebf gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e3nh, thu\u1ed9c H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng Qu\u00e2n Nh\u00e2n c\u00e1ch M\u1ea1ng, \u1ee6y Ban L\u00e3nh \u0110\u1ea1o L\u00e2m th\u1eddi, Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Qu\u1ed1c gia, H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng qu\u00e2n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 \u00a0\u1ee6y Ban L\u00e3nh \u0110\u1ea1o Qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi thanh l\u1eadp Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ecb C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0 v\u1edbi Trung T\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n V\u0103n Thi\u1ec7u l\u00e0m T\u1ed5ng Th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 Thi\u1ebfu T\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n Cao K\u1ef3 l\u00e0m Ph\u00f3. \u00a0S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 g\u00e2y th\u00eam tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c thi b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01a1i s\u00f4i \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y, Bi\u1ebfn C\u1ed1 M\u1eadu Th\u00e2n 1968 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd chi\u1ebfn:<\/p>\n Khi thay th\u1ebf Lyndon Johnson v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1969, TT Richard Nixon b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00e1i x\u00e9t Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf h\u01a1n, kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft nh\u1eb1m ch\u1ed1ng c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c b\u00eanh v\u1ef1c d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. \u00a0V\u1edbi con s\u1ed1 t\u1eed vong h\u01a1n 1,000 binh s\u0129 Hoa K\u1ef3 m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng trong su\u1ed1t 10 n\u0103m t\u1eeb 1963 t\u1edbi 1972, TT Nixon v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng\u00a0Kissinger \u0111\u1ebfu th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1eafng t\u1ea1i Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ea7m c\u1ef1 n\u00e0y l\u00e2u d\u00e0i th\u00eam.<\/p>\n Do \u0111\u00f3, theo \u201c\u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i x\u1ea3 h\u01a1i\u201d [\u201cD\u00e9tente\u201d<\/em>][24]<\/a>, Nixon m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t gia t\u0103ng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng thuy\u1ebft v\u1edbi Nga X\u00f4 v\u1ec1 \u201cChi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c Gi\u1ea3m Thi\u1ec3u V\u0169 Kh\u00ed Nguy\u00ean T\u1eed\u201d [Strategic Arms Limitation Talks<\/em>],[25]<\/a>\u00a0m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, c\u1eed Kissinger giao h\u1ea3o v\u1edbi Trung c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u0103n b\u1ea3n nh\u1eb1m ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh \u201ctrong danh d\u1ef1\u201d[26]<\/a>\u00a0t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Hoa K\u1ef3.<\/p>\n Trong tinh th\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3, Nixon quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u qu\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u00a0537,000 xu\u1ed1ng 27,400 binh s\u0129 v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 1972 \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u201cVi\u1ec7t Nam ho\u00e1\u201d cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn [Vietnamization<\/em>], c\u0169ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cCh\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Nixon\u201d,[27]<\/a>\u00a0b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch r\u00fat qu\u00e2n s\u0129 Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u1ec1 t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ee3t v\u00e0 giao th\u00eam tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn cho Qu\u00e2n \u0110\u1ed9i VNCH. \u00a0Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea9y ra nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c \u00e1c li\u1ec7t nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n Sau nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn, th\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng sau l\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u cam k\u1ebft v\u1edbi \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1eeba l\u1ecdc, Hi\u1ec7p \u0110\u1ecbnh Paris \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00fd k\u1ebft v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1973, gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3, Vi\u1ec7t Nam D\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0, Vi\u1ec7t Nam C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0 v\u00e0 C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0 Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam [th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp n\u0103m 1969, do Hu\u1ef3nh T\u1ea5n Ph\u00e1t l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch].<\/p>\n N\u0103m 1973, T\u1ed5ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c Ph\u00f2ng Schlesinger \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb Qu\u1ed1c H\u1ed9i cho ph\u00e9p th\u1ea3 bom l\u1ea1i B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t n\u1ebfu H\u00e0N\u1ed9i vi ph\u1ea1m Hi\u1ec7p \u0110\u1ecbnh Paris trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p h\u1ecd \u0111em qu\u00e2n \u0111\u00e1nh l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i Mi\u1ec1n Nam.\u00a0 Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng Vi\u1ec7n l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c ra \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadtCase-Church Amendment<\/em>\u00a0\u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea5m vi\u1ec7c th\u1ea3 bom n\u00e0y.[28]<\/a>\u00a0Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ecdi cam k\u1ebft b\u00eanh v\u1ef1c, m\u1ecdi h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n ngon ng\u1ecdt c\u1ee7a TT Nixon \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi TT NVThi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3i coi l\u00e0 h\u01b0 \u1ea3o, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 l\u1eeba \u0111\u1ea3o.<\/p>\n Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u00a0QBV thao t\u00fang d\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00f2n H\u1ed3 Ch\u00ed Minh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1ea3i th\u00eam \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn, th\u00eam s\u00fang \u1ed1ng, \u0111\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ee7 lo\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi xe t\u0103ng, thi\u1ebft gi\u00e1p do Trung C\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp vi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ed5ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng d\u1ef1 t\u00ednh t\u1eeb 1975 t\u1edbi 1976. \u00a0Nh\u01b0ng cu\u1ed9c H\u00e0nh Qu\u00e2n 275 d\u01b0\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ec9 huy c\u1ee7a t\u01b0\u1edbng Tr\u1ea7n V\u0103n Tr\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111em l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i.\u00a0 Sau khi Ban M\u00ea Thu\u1ed9t b\u1ecb bao v\u00e2y, TT NVThi\u1ec7u ra l\u1ec7nh T\u01b0\u1edbng Ph\u00fa r\u00fat qu\u00e2n kh\u1ecfi Pleiku v\u00e0 Kontum ng\u00e0y 12 th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 1975. \u00a0Hu\u1ebf, r\u1ed3i \u0110\u00e0 N\u1eb5ng th\u1ea5t th\u1ee7 v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, S\u00e0i G\u00f2n th\u1ea5t th\u1ee7 ng\u00e0y 30 th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 1975, ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn 20 n\u0103m nhi\u1ec1u hy sinh b\u1ebd b\u00e0ng.[29]<\/a><\/p>\n Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd di\u1ec5n ti\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t v\u1edf tu\u1ed3ng b\u1ed1n m\u00e0n: [1] Khai m\u1edf v\u1edbi s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a TT Truman & TT Eisenhower, [2] x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u201cbe-b\u1edd\u201c do TT JK Kennedy & Co V\u1ea5n Bundy, [3] bi\u1ebfn ho\u00e1 cao \u0111\u1ed9 v\u1edbi TT Lyndon Johnson, [4] \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t t\u1ee5t h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t trong \u201cdanh d\u1ef1\u201d,[30]<\/a>\u00a0v\u1edbi TT Nixon v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng\u00a0Kissinger.<\/p>\n S\u1ef1 th\u1ef1c c\u1ea3 b\u1ed1n c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3 gom l\u1ea1i v\u1eabn ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u201cb\u1ec1 di\u1ec7n ngo\u00e0i\u201d c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u00fd \u0111\u1ed3 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9, v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1i t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd: quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a T\u01b0 b\u1ea3n.\u00a0\u00a0 C\u0103n c\u1ee9 v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh ng\u00f4n t\u1eeb c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd, cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eb1m:<\/p>\n Nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb m\u1eafc k\u1eb9t v\u00e0o c\u00e1i n\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00e0 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n gu\u1ed3ng m\u00e1y s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t do t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1ed1n.\u00a0 C\u00e1i ti\u1ec1m l\u1ef1c ph\u1ed3n th\u1ecbnh l\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng, \u0111\u00f4i khi mang tai \u00e1ch c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh TT Eisenhower e ng\u1ea1i: tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7, thi\u1ec7n t\u00e2m \u0111\u00f4i khi b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng b\u1edfi c\u01a1 s\u1edf li\u00ean k\u1ebft \u201cT\u1eadp \u0110o\u00e0n-K\u1ef9 Ngh\u1ec7-Qu\u00e2n S\u1ef1\u201d [Military Industrial Complex<\/em>].[32]<\/a>\u00a0C\u00e1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh cho l\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i v\u00e0 ho\u00e0 b\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f4i khi qu\u00e1 \u0111\u1eaft, qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng: Quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00e0i phi\u1ec7t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nhu li\u1ec7u chi\u1ebfn tranh m\u1ed7i l\u00fac m\u1ed7i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, m\u1ed7i l\u00fac m\u1ed7i ph\u00e2n ho\u00e1, bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m hao h\u1ee5t c\u00f4ng qu\u1ef9 v\u00e0 t\u00e0i l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n ch\u00fang.\u00a0 T\u1ed5ng kinh ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00ean t\u1edbi 111 T\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 Kim [kho\u1ea3ng h\u01a1n 700 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 Kim theo v\u1eadt gi\u00e1 n\u0103m 2008], d\u00f9 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 nu\u1ed1i d\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u00e1i l\u00f2 c\u01a1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1ee3c si\u00eau \u0111\u1eb3ng n\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t l\u00fac n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng, qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng qu\u1ef9 Hoa k\u1ef3.\u00a0 D\u00e2n s\u1ebd ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i, v\u00ec thu\u1ebf cao, \u0111\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf. V\u00e0 khi t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n Hoa K\u1ef3 th\u1ea5y h\u1ebft l\u1eddi, h\u1ebft l\u1ee3i \u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, h\u1ecd r\u00fat v\u1ed1n xo\u00e1 b\u00e0i, v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 nhu li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t c\u00e1i m\u1ed9t.<\/p>\n V\u1edbi c\u00e1i \u201ct\u00e2m\u201d c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-b\u1edd tr\u00ean, ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00ednh th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Vi\u1ec7t Nam C\u1ed9ng Ho\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p \u201cthi h\u00e0nh\u201d m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7, v\u1eeba ti\u00eau m\u00f2n, v\u1eeba lu\u1ed9m thu\u1ed9m, v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng ai [k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00e1 Hoa K\u1ef3] c\u00f3 s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn \u201c\u0111\u00e1nh th\u1ef1c\/th\u1eafng th\u1ef1c<\/strong>\u201d, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi \u201c\u0111\u1ed3ng minh\u201d Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 \u201cth\u1ef1c s\u1ef1\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao quy\u1ec1n s\u1edf h\u1eefu cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn l\u1eabn \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n.\u00a0 Qu\u00e2n d\u00e2n Mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam tranh \u0111\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c g\u00ec nh\u1eefng \u201ccon c\u1edd ng\u01b0\u1eddi\u201d \u0111em nhi\u1ec7t t\u00ecnh m\u00e1u m\u1ee7 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u201cb\u00e0n c\u1edd ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf\u201d vi\u1ec5n ki\u1ec3m b\u1eb1ng tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 v\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i t\u00e0i phi\u1ec7t v\u00f4 c\u1ea3m.\u00a0 Ch\u00fang ta bi\u1ebft c\u1ea3m \u01a1n nh\u1eefng binh s\u0129 tr\u1ebb \u0111\u00e3 t\u1edbi Mi\u1ec1n Nam b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 t\u00ednh m\u1ea1ng d\u00e2n ch\u00fang v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1ch, chuy\u00ean vi\u00ean c\u00f3 thi\u1ec7n ch\u00ed th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 thi h\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng cu\u1ed9c \u201cbe b\u1edd\u201d t\u1ea1o d\u1ef1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 non n\u1edbt.\u00a0 Nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn ai o\u00e1n khi \u201cch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf<\/strong>\u201d [Real Politics<\/em><\/strong>] cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang ta th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 v\u1eadn m\u1ec7nh c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta, ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadn l\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ed3i, x\u1eafp x\u1ebfp sau l\u01b0ng ch\u00fang ta, kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat li\u00eam s\u1ec9 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y th\u01b0\u1edbng x\u00f3t cho k\u1ebb \u0111\u1ed3ng h\u00e0nh, \u0111\u1ed3ng minh k\u00e9m v\u1ebf.<\/p>\n Ngay c\u1ea3 Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i v\u00e0 Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t c\u0169ng l\u00e2m v\u00e0o c\u1ea3nh ng\u1ed9 kh\u00f4ng s\u00e1ng s\u1ee7a g\u00ec h\u01a1n, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i l\u00e0 kh\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ed1n, nguy ng\u1eadp.\u00a0 Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i v\u00e0 Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eafng nh\u1edd v\u00e0o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Nga X\u00f4 v\u00e0 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u1ee7a Trung c\u1ed9ng. \u00a0H\u1ecd l\u00e0 k\u1ebb th\u1eafng tr\u1eadn, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1\u00a0th\u1eafng cu\u1ed9c<\/strong>. H\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c S\u00e0i G\u00f2n, nh\u01b0ng ngay sau 1975 v\u00e0 t\u1edbi\u00a0ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay h\u1ecd \u0111ang thua tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i n\u1ed9i thi\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb \u0110\u1ea5t N\u01b0\u1edbc trong \u201cho\u00e0 b\u00ecnh\u201d, khi m\u1ea5t c\u1edb l\u1eeba b\u1ecbp d\u00e2n ch\u00fang v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn tranh, v\u00e0 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i khi h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 h\u01a1n 50 n\u0103m vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 Trung C\u1ed9ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xo\u00e1 b\u1ecf ranh gi\u1edbi, c\u1ea7m c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111ai, r\u1eebng gi\u00e0, b\u00e1n bi\u1ec3n, b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea3o, b\u00e1n d\u00e2n.<\/p>\n Trong Chi\u1ebfn Tranh L\u1ea1nh, chi\u1ebfn tranh Vi\u1ec7t Nam (1955-1975) th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn tranh \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m (proxy war) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Li\u00ean X\u00f4 s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ea3m s\u00e1t h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Do \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng chi\u1ebfn tranh \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 (\u201cT\u01b0 b\u1ea3n T\u1ef1 Do\u201d ch\u1ed1ng \u201cC\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf\u201d) l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch an to\u00e0n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1, song song v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n \u201cquy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i qu\u1ed1c gia\u201d (national interests) c\u1ee7a b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n (Hegemony) Hoa K\u1ef3, Nga X\u00f4, Trung C\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n Trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m n\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t b\u00ean ch\u00ednh th\u1ec3 Qu\u1ed1c Gia Mi\u1ec1n Nam b\u1ecb k\u1eb9t b\u1edfi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a \u201cBe-B\u1edd\u201d [Containment Doctrine], th\u00ec CSVN l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng t\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7c c\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1nh m\u01b0\u1edbn, b\u1ecb th\u00f2ng c\u1ed5 \u201cTa \u0111\u00e1nh M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh cho Li\u00ean X\u00f4 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c\u201d, theo tuy\u00ean ng\u00f4n minh b\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a L\u00ea Du\u1ea9n, T\u1ed5ng b\u00ed th\u01b0 Ban ch\u1ea5p h\u00e0nh Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 kh\u00e1c nhau gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran (xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9\u2013Iran 2025\u20132026) v\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn tranh Vi\u1ec7t Nam, x\u00e9t tr\u00ean ba tr\u1ee5c ch\u00ednh: chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt, v\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/p>\n 1.1. Sai l\u1ea7m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i:<\/strong> qu\u00e1 t\u1ef1 tin v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng 1.2. Kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia (state\u2011building)<\/strong> 1.3. Suy gi\u1ea3m \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc<\/strong> 2.1. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1c nhau<\/strong> 2.2. Quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfn tranh<\/strong> 3.1. Chi\u1ebfn tranh ch\u1ed1ng n\u1ed5i d\u1eady (COIN)<\/strong> 3.2. H\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o<\/strong> 4.1. Vi\u1ec7t Nam: chi\u1ebfn tranh quy \u01b0\u1edbc + du k\u00edch<\/strong> 5.1. Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong> 5.4. Iran (2025\u20132026)<\/strong> Gi\u1ed1ng nhau:<\/strong> Michigan State University, Howard Law School<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong>CH\u00da TH\u00cdCH<\/strong><\/p>\n [1]<\/a>\u00a0\u201cKennan and Containment, 1947\u2033,\u00a0Diplomacy in Action,<\/em>\u00a0U.S. Department of State<\/p>\n [2]<\/a>\u00a0In March 1919, French Premier Georges Clemenceau called for a\u00a0cordon sanitaire<\/em>, or ring of non-communist states, to isolate the Russians. Translating this phrase, U.S. President Woodrow Wilson called for a \u201cquarantine.\u201d Both phrases analogize communism to a contagious disease.<\/p>\n [3]<\/a>\u00a0Referring to communism in Indochina, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower put the theory into words during an April 7, 1954 news conference: Finally, you have broader considerations that might follow what you would call the \u201cfalling domino\u201d principle. You have a row of dominoes set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over very quickly. So you could have a beginning of a disintegration that would have the most profound influences.<\/p>\n [4]<\/a>\u00a0\u201cKennan and Containment, 1947\u2033,\u00a0Diplomacy in Action,<\/em>\u00a0U.S. Department of State<\/p>\n [5]<\/a>\u00a0Kennan responded on February 22, 1946 by sending a lengthy 5,500-word telegram (sometimes cited as being over 8,000 words) from Moscow to Secretary of State James Byrnes outlining a new strategy on how to handle diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union. At the \u201cbottom of the Kremlin\u2019s neurotic view of world affairs\u201d, Kennan argued, \u201cis the traditional and instinctive Russian sense of insecurity\u201d. Following the Russian Revolution, this sense of insecurity became mixed with communist ideology and \u201cOriental secretiveness and conspiracy\u201d.<\/p>\n Soviet behavior on the international stage, argued Kennan, depended chiefly on the internal necessities of Joseph Stalin\u2019s regime; according to Kennan, Stalin needed a hostile world in order to legitimize his own autocratic rule. Stalin thus used Marxism-Leninism as a \u201cjustification for [the Soviet Union’s] instinctive fear of the outside world, for the dictatorship without which they did not know how to rule, for cruelties they did not dare not to inflict, for sacrifice they felt bound to demand\u2026 Today they cannot dispense with it. It is fig leaf of their moral and intellectual respectability.\u201d<\/p>\n [6]<\/a>\u00a0Frazier, Robert. \u201cAcheson and the Formulation of the Truman Doctrine\u201dJournal of Modern Greek Studies<\/em>\u00a01999 17(2): 229\u2013251. ISSN\u00a00738-1727<\/p>\n [7]<\/a>\u00a0At the \u201cbottom of the Kremlin\u2019s neurotic view of world affairs\u201d, Kennan argued, \u201cis the traditional and instinctive Russian sense of insecurity\u201d. Following the Russian Revolution, this sense of insecurity became mixed with communist ideology and \u201cOriental secretiveness and conspiracy\u201d. Soviet behavior on the international stage, argued Kennan, depended chiefly on the internal necessities of Joseph Stalin\u2019s regime; according to Kennan, Stalin needed a hostile world in order to legitimize his own autocratic rule. Stalin thus used Marxism-Leninism as a \u201cjustification for [the Soviet Union’s] instinctive fear of the outside world, for the dictatorship without which they did not know how to rule, for cruelties they did not dare not to inflict, for sacrifice they felt bound to demand\u2026<\/p>\n [8]<\/a>\u00a0Gaddis, John Lewis. \u201cReconsiderations: Was the Truman Doctrine a Real Turning Point?\u201d\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em>\u00a01974 52(2): 386\u2013402<\/p>\n [9]<\/a>\u00a0Kort, Michael (2001).\u00a0The Columbia Guide to the Cold War<\/em>. Columbia University Press<\/p>\n [10]<\/a>\u00a0Fossedal, Gregory A. Our Finest Hour: Will Clayton, the Marshall Plan, and the Triumph of Democracy. (1993).\u00a0 Gimbel, John, The origins of the Marshall plan (Stanford University Press, 1976).<\/p>\n [11]<\/a>\u00a0Reynolds,\u00a0The origins of the Cold War in Europe. International perspectives<\/em><\/p>\n [12]<\/a>\u00a0Amy B. Zegart, \u00a0Flawed by Design,\u00a0The Evolution of the CIA, JCS, and NSC<\/em><\/p>\n [13]<\/a>\u00a0MacArthur, North Korea. Truman\u2019s No-win policy<\/p>\n [14]<\/a>\u00a0Referring to communism in Indochina, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower put the theory into words during an April 7, 1954 news conference: \u201cFinally, you have broader considerations that might follow what you would call the \u201cfalling domino\u201d principle. You have a row of dominoes set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over very quickly. So you could have a beginning of a disintegration that would have the most profound influences.\u201d<\/p>\n [15]<\/a>\u00a0Eisenhower\u2019s memoirs of his years in the White House,\u00a0Mandate for Change<\/em>\u00a0(1963)<\/p>\n\n
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1. Khai m\u1edf Ch\u1ee7 <\/strong>Ngh\u0129a <\/strong>Be-b\u1edd t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n
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2. Vi\u1ec7t Nam Th\u00e0nh Th\u00ed \u0110i\u1ec3m Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-B\u1edd<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
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3. Bi\u1ebfn Ho\u00e1 Ch\u1ee7 <\/strong>Ngh\u0129a <\/strong>Be-b\u1edd t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n
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4. Ch\u1ea5m D\u1ee9t <\/strong>Ch\u1ee7 <\/strong>ngh\u0129a<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Be-b\u1edd t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n
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II. Ph\u1ea3n Di\u1ec7n Ch\u1ee7 Ngh\u0129a Be-B\u1edd T\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
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\n\u201cThis conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience\u2026In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>the military-industrial complex.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic process<\/em>.<\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> \u2014 President Dwight Eisenhower.[33]<\/a><\/p>\nT\u1ea1m K\u1ebft<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
1. T\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0110\u1ed3ng Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\nNhi\u1ec1u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p \u00fd ch\u00ed v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn trong c\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iran. M\u1ed9t h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i \u201ctrong t\u00e2m tr\u00ed l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i tr\u00ean chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d, khi h\u1ecd nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn gi\u1eefa kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n
\nC\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Iraq \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y M\u1ef9 g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n l\u1edbn trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, c\u00f3 t\u00ednh ch\u00ednh danh v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e2n ch\u00fang \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9. M\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a U.S. Army War College ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi b\u1ebf t\u1eafc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i Iraq, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc suy gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n
\nC\u1ea3 b\u1ed1n cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec1u k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m v\u00e0 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang M\u1ef9. M\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Hoover Institution cho th\u1ea5y Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Iraq v\u00e0 Afghanistan \u0111\u1ec1u k\u00e9o d\u00e0i qu\u00e1 l\u00e2u, chi ph\u00ed qu\u00e1 cao, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/p>\n2. Kh\u00e1c Bi\u1ec7t Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\n\u2022 Vi\u1ec7t Nam (1965\u20131975): m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 lan r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n theo h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft Domino.
\n\u2022 Afghanistan (2001\u20132014): m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u00e0 ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t al\u2011Qaeda v\u00e0 Taliban sau 9\/11.
\n\u2022 Iraq (2003\u20132011): m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 (d\u00f9 l\u00fd do WMD sau \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ecb ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 sai).
\n\u2022 Iran (2025\u20132026): theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, M\u1ef9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u201c\u0111e d\u1ecda s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ec7n minh cho h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 Iraq nh\u01b0ng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n
\n\u2022 Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh quy \u01b0\u1edbc k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p du k\u00edch, v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m ngh\u00ecn qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 tham chi\u1ebfn.
\n\u2022 Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iraq ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh ch\u1ed1ng n\u1ed5i d\u1eady (COIN) v\u1edbi l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.
\n\u2022 Iran (2025\u20132026) l\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o t\u00ean l\u1eeda, drone, phong t\u1ecfa eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i chi\u1ebfn tranh b\u1ed9 binh quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn.
\n2.3. \u0110\u1ecba h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Vi\u1ec7t Nam: r\u1eebng r\u1eadm, \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n.
\n\u2022 Afghanistan: n\u00fai cao, b\u1ed9 t\u1ed9c ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n, chi\u1ebfn tranh du k\u00edch k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.
\n\u2022 Iraq: \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb, sa m\u1ea1c, chi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p.
\n\u2022 Iran: chi\u1ebfn tranh t\u1ea7m xa, h\u1ea3i l\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, kh\u00f4ng gian m\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 drone.<\/p>\n3. T\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0110\u1ed3ng Chi\u1ebfn Thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\nVi\u1ec7t Nam, Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iraq \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi du k\u00edch, n\u1ed5i d\u1eady, v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh phi \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng. Hoover Institution ghi nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3 ba chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean COIN nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n
\nTrong c\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iran, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec1u g\u1eb7p v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 ho\u1eb7c sai l\u1ec7ch, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c sai l\u1ea7m. V\u00ed d\u1ee5: trong xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran 2025\u20132026, M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o \u201cch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e1ng nghi ng\u1edd\u201d.<\/p>\n4. Kh\u00e1c Bi\u1ec7t Chi\u1ebfn Thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\nM\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ed1ng du k\u00edch \u1edf mi\u1ec1n Nam.
\n4.2. Afghanistan: chi\u1ebfn tranh du k\u00edch thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay<\/strong>
\nTaliban kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i ch\u00ednh quy m\u1ea1nh, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ch\u00ed chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9, \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec3m tr\u1edf, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1ed9 t\u1ed9c.
\n4.3. Iraq: chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb v\u00e0 gi\u00e1o ph\u00e1i<\/strong>
\nM\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi:
\n\u2022 n\u1ed5i d\u1eady Sunni,
\n\u2022 d\u00e2n qu\u00e2n Shia,
\n\u2022 chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb (Fallujah, Baghdad),
\n\u2022 xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o ph\u00e1i sau khi Saddam s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5.
\n4.4. Iran: chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao<\/strong>
\nIran s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng:
\n\u2022 drone gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb,
\n\u2022 t\u00ean l\u1eeda t\u1ea7m xa,
\n\u2022 chi\u1ebfn tranh m\u1ea1ng,
\n\u2022 phong t\u1ecfa eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz b\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt phi truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng.
\n\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam hay Afghanistan.<\/p>\n5. Quy\u1ec1n L\u1ee3i Qu\u1ed1c Gia (National Interests)<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\n\u2022 Ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n lan r\u1ed9ng \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1.
\n\u2022 B\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh.
\n5.2. Afghanistan<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a 9\/11.
\n\u2022 Ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.
\n\u2022 \u1ed4n \u0111\u1ecbnh khu v\u1ef1c Nam \u00c1.
\n5.3. Iraq<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t nguy c\u01a1 Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD \/ d\u00f9 sau \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3).<\/p>\n\n
\n\u2022 \u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn an ninh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\u2022 Ng\u0103n Iran \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ed3ng minh M\u1ef9 (Israel, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh).
\n\u2022 B\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 tuy\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u qua Hormuz.
\n\u2022 Ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Iran.<\/p>\nK\u1ebeT LU\u1eacN T\u1ed4NG H\u1ee2P<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
\n\u2022 M\u1ef9 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 t\u1ef1 tin.
\n\u2022 Kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng.
\n\u2022 Suy gi\u1ea3m \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.
\n\u2022 Chi\u1ebfn tranh phi \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u00e0 n\u1ed5i d\u1eady k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.
\nKh\u00e1c nhau:<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh quy \u01b0\u1edbc + du k\u00edch; Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iraq l\u00e0 COIN; Iran l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao.
\n\u2022 M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1c nhau theo t\u1eebng th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.
\n\u2022 Quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\nL\u01b0u Nguy\u1ec5n \u0110\u1ea1t, PhD, LLB\/JD, LLM<\/span><\/h3>\n